Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Let the polls begin

Monmouth has a poll showing a 44-44 tie in the race for governor.
Blue Virginia tries to analyze, and inadvertently boosts the Republican side.
In 2009 and 2013, polls in the summer gave Democrats more support than they received election day.
Democrats can hope President Trump will drag Republicans down.
What's their plan if the economy boosts Republicans up?

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Peake angst

Democrats held out hope of pulling an upset in the special election in Senate District 22.
Maybe Republicans would split between the two candidates.
Maybe Democrat Ryant Washington would fit the district and give his party a 20th seat - deadlocking the Senate and giving Democrats a tiebreaker this session.
A Democratic win Tuesday would slow Republican momentum prior to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Didn't happen.
Washington formerly was Fluvanna County Sheriff.
But he only won the county by 77 votes.
Not enough to help elsewhere in the district.
Republicans roll on.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

The race is on

The 2017 gubernatorial election just got more exciting with Tom Perriello's announcement of his bid for the Democratic nomination.
And much better for Republicans.
First, it creates instant disunity in the Democratic Party, and sets up a difficult fight – something Democrats really haven’t had for a while when it comes to statewide offices.  McAuliffe ran unopposed in 2013, and Creigh Deeds easily defeated both other candidates in 2009 by close to 25%.  Democrats have not had a truly contested Democratic primary for governor in decades.  There’s clearly a lot of bad blood in the party after the national loss in 2016, even if Virginia Democrats can crow that they won the state for Hillary Clinton. Second, it’s important to remember that Republicans have beaten Perriello before in a straight up fight, which isn’t true about Ralph Northam – who has defeated one Republican incumbent and has never lost a race.  Democrats can’t claim Perriello lost in 2010 because of redistricting, because the district was the same one that he won in 2008 on President Obama’s coattails.  He was an energetic supporter of Obamacare, cap and trade and other liberal policies, and it was that support that cost him his job in 2010. Those stances haven’t aged well.  Finally, and most important in my opinion, having a legitimately contested Democratic primary on the same day as the Republican primary will reduce the risk of crossover voting by Democrats, so the expected charges that could fly in GOP nominating fights about Democratic interference will be nullified.  The GOP races will be straight up, decided by Republicans alone.