What Cuccineli did right

Bearing Drift continues to offer lessons from the past election.
If your lesson is "blame Cuccinelli," it might not help next time.
I’m sure you’re ready to ask me why, if Ken got so much right, he still lost.  My answer to that is simple:  I don’t think anybody on our side could have won this year.  Not Bolling, not McDonnell, not George Allen, not anybody else we could have nominated.   Think about it this way – the Democrats nominated their weakest gubernatorial candidate in pretty much forever and he still won.  There was something more than just campaign tactics at work here against us.

Understanding the election

Bearing Drift features a lengthy list of reasons and myths on the past election.
And leaves some fine parting words.
Be bold.  Stand up for what you believe.  Don’t worry about what the left says.  Never defend.  Always attack.  Keep control of the agenda.  Save your money for the end.

Cuccinelli for Senate 2014

Bearing Drift asks the obvious question - why not Ken Cuccinelli to run for Senate next year?
Main reason - Who else you got?
Democratic incumbents running in 2014 are in a panic over the troubled rollout of Obamacare.
The original Obamacare fighter keeps looking better as Obamacare looks worse.
Virginia Virtucon joins the club.
Cuccinelli can argue that Obamacare is hurting the economy and destroying full-time job opportunities as a means to hammer Warner on jobs and his failure to do anything significant in the Senate.  No wonder Warner was part of the meeting of 16 Democrat U.S. Senators who are up for reelection next year to visit the White House yesterday to talk about the problems with Obamacare.

Look to science

In the reasons for a Cuccinelli loss, I list Star Scientific higher than this list.
Why were Cuccinelli's numbers down in September, before the government shutdown?
Star Scientific and it's aftermath.
For many voters, all politicians are crooks. Star Scientific confirmed that thought, instead of allowing Cuccinelli to pound on Terry McLowlife as the only crook.

Last minute candidate shopping

Bearing Drift has the last look at the race before Tuesday's Election Day.
The questions at this point are simple.  We have 24 hours to go:
(1) Is Cuccinelli within striking distance?
(2) Will Obama’s appearance in Virginia hurt or help T-Mac?
(3) Is Sarvis really drawing down T-Mac’s lead?
(4)  Finally, will turnout be above 35% — and will that turnout actually benefit (rather than harm) Cuccinelli given an irate base?
I think the answers to these questions are (1) yes he is, (2) it’s gonna hurt T-Mac, (3) Sarvis is helping Cuccinelli at this point, and (4) we may see higher than predicted turnout based on outrage over the Obamacare rollout.

Defeat Hillary - Vote Cuccinelli

It's really simple Tuesday.
A good future for Virginia - and America - depends on Ken Cuccinelli winning.
If he wins, there's major damage to Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential bid.
If that's what you want, then vote for Terry McAuliffe.

Vote wisely, libertarians

Robert Sarvis has done well this campaign season, nearing and maybe surpassing 10 percent as the Libertarian candidate for governor.
But now it's decision time.
Neither Ken Cuccinelli nor Terry McAuliffe will likely break 50 percent of the vote Tuesday.
Voters thinking about going with Sarvis will make the difference.
They may not like the candidates of the two major parties, but one of them will be the next governor.
Which comes closer to your overall policies?
Here's a hint.
Ron Paul will rally with Cuccinelli Monday night.

Goodlatte sets it straight

Bob Goodlatte goes to National Review's Corner to tell his opinion on the immigration bill.
The Gang of Eight bill is fundamentally flawed and unworkable, because it repeats the mistakes made in past immigration overhauls. Among my many concerns, the Senate bill gives legal status before enforcement is up and operating, provides a special pathway to citizenship for those who have broken our immigration laws, and allows the president to waive many, if not most, of the bill’s internal enforcement requirements.

Get your guns

Breitbart looks at Terry McAuliffe's ideas on guns.
Didn't work too well for Colorado Democrats.

Drifting closer

Bearing Drift takes a shot at polling the 2013 elections - with a twist.
The split here diverges from other polls, which have assumed the 2013 electorate will look far more like it did in the 2012 presidential year than has historically been the case for Virginia’s off-year elections. Recall that in 2009, that electorate was +4 Republican over Democrat.
Hard to see McAuliffe riding a wave of Obama enthusiasm.
Cuccinelli may find slow and steady beats flashy.

Alone in a field

Driving between Fishersville and Waynesboro, there's a field with a sign that has blue lettering.
It has the names of three people running for statewide office.
What's missing?
Their political party.
They must not be proud to be Democrats in Augusta County.

New license plate choice

A Legal Insurrection reader finds the newest specialty license plate - Community Peacebuilding.

Team "old white guys"

The Democrats have their candidates for the three statewide positions.
Bearing Drift isn't impressed.
These were races where the powers that be in the Democrat party worked together to advance their good ‘ol boys in the State Senate. After the Republicans nominated a dynamic African-American lawyer and pastor for Lieutenant Governor, Dick Saslaw, the VEA, and other liberal interest groups endorsed the white State Senators.  The Democrats had two chances to diversify and rejected both options.  Today was the day where the Democrat Party of Virginia told the minorities in their party, “We will draw majority minority districts for you, but we will stop you from winning nominations elsewhere.”

Shades of Reagan

Legal Insurrection features a cool bumper sticker in Charlottesville.

Will the wacko card work?

John Fund looks at the Virginia gubernatorial contest.
Virginia could indeed swing Democratic this year, but the only way that’s going to happen is if Democrats win the policy arguments and convince voters they have better ideas. Relying on bogeyman scare tactics hasn’t worked in the past, and so far it isn’t working this year.

Can't beat Cuccinelli

Watching the reaction of Democrats to the nomination of E.W. Jackson as Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor, they must realize they have no chance in November.
Blue Virginia runs a lengthy piece on how Republicans could get Jackson off the ticket. All suggestions that would divide the party, increase friction between the grassroots and establishment, and mostly make the Cuccinelli team look bad.
Jackson grabbed the convention spotlight and rode it to a surprising victory. He's the man, and no amount of whining can change that.
If you like Cuccinelli, you like his standing for his beliefs - no matter what criticism he gets.
He probably remembers all the criticism from the summer of 2009, when his nomination was assumed to doom the Republican ticket.
The Republican ticket has toured the state.
The Democrats' only hope in November is to break up the team. Don't fall for it.

Speaking of crazy

NRO has an eye on crazy past statements by Terry McAuliffe.
There's going to be plenty of talk about this campaign season.

Can the consultants earn their pay?

Joe Thomas enjoyed Saturday's Republican convention - maybe too much.
E.W. Jackson leading wire-to-wire will be making consultant earn their pay now until November.
That excitement started when the afore-mentioned consultants started to exert their efforts to wrest back the ticket into their paradigm of predictability. It started as an “anyone-but-Jackson” vibe vibrating through the campaign HQ’s in the Coliseum’s luxury boxes. (Note to future convention holders, grass roots activists are very sensitive about things like this.)
The people have spoken. Republicans won with Cuccinelli in 2009, and can do it again in 2013.

Inside the poll numbers

Are you a Democrat excited about the latest poll?
Look inside the numbers, dude.
To have McAuliffe up by five points, the poll used an electorate of 35 percent Democrats, 25 percent Republicans and 31 percent Independents.
Democrats plus 10 in the poll.
What about the recent Washington Post poll that showed Cuccinelli ahead?
Republicans 26, Democrats 28, Independents 35.
More Democrats in a poll and McAuliffe's numbers go up.
If you're surprised, you like stopping by fundraisers on the way home from the hospital.

Vainglorious outlander

The Hook puts another "McAuliffe in trouble" story on the cover.
Indeed, McAuliffe carries some heavy baggage. Quentin Kidd, professor of political science at Christopher Newport University, says the biggest challenge for McAuliffe is shedding his persona as an "inside Washington kind of partisan." In Virginia, both parties have succeeded when running moderate gubernatorial candidates long on business experience. McAuliffe no doubt is attempting to recast his image in this regard, but Cuccinelli is already working overtime to undercut this advantage by hammering him hard, and early, on GreenTech.
Do you trust this man with your government?

Trouble for Terry

Has Terry McAuliffe conceded yet?
The media seems ready to do it for him.
“So far, the answer to ‘How does he handle these questions?’ is ‘Not well,’” says the strategist with a sigh, and notes, “There are a lot of Democrats in the state that are getting incredibly nervous about how Terry McAuliffe is allowing himself to be turned into Mitt Romney.”
Maybe they should have read his book in 2009.

Terry the truther

NRO's Jim Geraghty has been reading Terry McAuliffe's book.
He didn't have to go far to find a surprise - pages 35-36.
Terry McAuliffe strongly believes that Ronald Reagan’s campaign conspired with the Iranian ayatollahs to prevent the release of the hostages in 1980.

Cuccinelli plus 10

The Washington Post has a poll on the upcoming gubernatorial race - not good news for Democrats.
While the overall lead for Ken Cuccinelli is five points, among likely voters it's 10 (51 to 41).
How do things compare with 2009?
Republicans won those matchups, before the Democratic nominee was decided.
We all know how that turned out.
Democrats should be worried. They think Cuccinelli is struggling now, and it's still ahead.

Extreme politicking

Bearing Drift wonders if Democrats have anything else besides calling Ken Cuccinelli "extreme."
Blue Virginia doubles down on finding things they find "extreme."
Bearing Drift's piece claims extremism doesn't matter. The process moderates anything "extreme" coming from either side.
And that's not the most important consideration, anyway.
There’s no substantive message there, no praise for their own candidate, or even an explanation as to why a national political operative with zero legislative experience, tenuous ties to Virginia and more political baggage than Mark Sanford would make a better choice for Governor of our commonwealth.
The Democrats' high hopes for Terry McAuliffe - that's extreme.

Any info with your speculation?

Blue Virginia thinks Ken Cuccinelli has a problem - you can't run for governor while staying as attorney general.
The assumption is - the political will pull the state job. You can't do both well.
Cuccinelli has been running for governor over a year as attorney general. Are there any examples of problems with the approach?
Nope, just speculation.
Others running for higher office make that the priority, so obviously Cuccinelli will.
Cuccinell's likely reason? He's running against a guy who is truly a political creature. If he leaves the job as attorney general, it's a politician running against a politician.
Now, it's an experienced public figure against a friend of Bill Clinton.
It may be hard to serve two masters. But against Terry McAuliffe, being grounded in the real world can make it work.

INexperienced, UNprincipled, and DIShonest

The crew at Blue Virginia isn't sure what to think about Ken Cuccinelli's first ad.
Will it sway women?
Don't they realize how radical he is?
A commenter notices the ad ends with words like "experienced," "principled," and "honest."
Describes Cuccinelli.
Terry McAuliffe?
Not so much.
McAuliffe has huge problems.
And the Cuccinelli team knows how to highlight them.

You're a rich boy, not going too far

After you see how much money Terry McAuliffe has, you wonder - where did he get it?
Global Crossing.
You can't compare McAuliffe to Mitt Romney.
Romney had business successes on his resume.

Show me the money

NRO's Campaign Spot shares where Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe are getting their campaign cash.
Ranking contributions by zip code, Cuccinelli has 16 Virginia zip codes in his top 25 - from Abingdon to Norfolk to McLean.
Only five Virginia counties show up in McAuliffe's top 25 - three in McLean, one in Richmond and one in Norfolk.
Those traditional Virginia hangouts - Chicago and Beverly Hills - gave plenty to McAuliffe.
People who can vote in November give their edge to Cuccinelli.

Keeping an eye on T-Mac

Jason Kenney checks out what Jeffersoniad bloggers are saying about Terry McAuliffe and GreenTech.

Stopping Cuccinelli? Probably not

The Hook posts a whining cover story - can anyone stop Ken Cuccinelli?
How can he win a state that Obama won twice?
Simple.
Terry McAuliffe isn't Barack Obama.
The Republican sweep of 2009 followed Obama's win in 2008. The coattails didn't last long.
Democrats think the demographics are going their way. But demographics don't vote; people vote.

Defeat Terry Clinton

A major theme of the 2013 gubernatorial campaign will be Terry McAuliffe's connections with the Clintons.
What he did with Bill in the 1990s.
What his race means to Hillary in 2016.
If he beats Ken Cuccinelli, it's a boost to Hillary.
If he loses, it's a drag on her hopes.
They are a team - even if they try to diminish talk of that.

Who are these guys again?

Bearing Drift finds the important numbers about the 2013 campaign - nobody knows these guys yet.

Ken Cuccinelli: 44% have no opinion
Terry McAuliffe: 63% have no opinion

Half of women have no opinion of Ken Cuccinelli. 60% of blacks have no opinion. Over half of Democrats have no opinion. A third of Republicans have no opinion. As you’d expect, all of those numbers are even higher for McAuliffe.
Also worth noting, neither candidate has increased their name ID since Quinnipiac went into the field in January. All of the shots across the bow from Cuccinelli and McAuliffe have been part of the quiet, cold war where no one’s paying attention except those who already know who they’re supporting.
Just over seven months until Election Day.
We'll learn to be tired of them in their TV ads.

Bolling backs out

Bill Bolling ended three months of speculation Tuesday by giving up an independent bid for governor.
It's Cuccinelli vs. McAuliffe.
Just as we thought months before.
Let the fun begin.

Shaking McAuliffe's tree

Blue Virginia sees the only way for Bill Bolling to win a three-way race for governor - cripple Terry McAuliffe.
The only way for Bolling to win would be for the McAuliffe campaign to totally collapse. Should Bolling actually ever mount a serious campaign with a chance of winning, it would require Terry to run third!

Do the math. Cuccinelli has the anti-abortion base of the GOP. By backing McDonnell's record tax increase in an election year, Bolling has sacrificed any credibility with the Republican anti-tax base. The business base of the party is leery of Cuccinelli but they have more money than votes. Meaning: Cuccinelli has most of the GOP base locked up on ideological grounds.

He basically has 30-35% locked in a three-way race unless something unexpected happens. In large measure, this is now a personal base as well. They are very pro-Cuccinelli. Further meaning: There is no way Bolling can get into the race with a reasonable expectation of shaking any useful number of these voters loose from the K-Man. If Bolling is going to have any chance of winning, he has to shake the McAuliffe political tree and get voters to fall off.

Think Democrats will abandon their party's choice for governor, with all the problems that creates down ticket?

Then you think Bolling has a chance.

Does Bolling have a chance?

NRO looks at Bill Bolling's chances with an independent bid for governor.
Earlier this week, Bolling stoked the chatter when he fired off an email to his donors and political allies, asking for their advice regarding a gubernatorial run. “I know it won’t be easy to win the governorship as an independent candidate, but with your help I believe it can be done,” he wrote.
But not all of Bolling’s allies are buying it. They say that money, more than anything else, will be the factor that keeps him out of the race. Unaffiliated Virginia Republicans agree, arguing that Bolling would need to raise millions fast. Running a credible independent campaign would take at least $15 million, and the lieutenant governor has less than $800,000 on hand. He also has little to no campaign apparatus.
Show me the money. And there's not much time to get the money before March 14.

Here to help, T-Mac

NRO's Jim Geraghty offers his help to Terry McAuliffe - a review of his book.
It’s time for this commonwealth to have a governor who has had a wacky caricature of himself framed upon the wall at The Palm since 1980, marking his influence and stature among the lobbyists and power brokers who meet for steaks and martinis. It’s time for a governor who has spent his adult life rubbing shoulders with the powerful at Pamela Harriman’s house in Georgetown, and who has a regular table at Café Milano. It’s time for a governor who can tell the best stories about Walter Mondale and about the hookers at Walter Shorenstein’s mansion in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

Dead heat

Quinnipiac comes out with its latest poll, showing a tie between Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe - if Bill Bolling is on the sideline.
Bolling gets 13 percent in a three-way battle, but here's his bad number - 72 percent don't have an opinion on him after eight years as Lt. Governor.

It's a gas

At Bearing Drift, they are intrigued by a lengthy post at Blue Virginia on the battle over the gas tax.
Think Ken Cuccinelli will play it right?
He did get the Republican nomination.

Coming to a highway near you

Paco offers an idea for highway signs welcoming you to Virginia.
If you're not a criminal or terrorist.